As I mentioned on X earlier this week, I will be traveling this weekend so there will be limited opportunities for me to work on projections and be as interactive in real time as I normally am, so I wanted to give you guys the full weekend projections ahead of time so you’re not waiting around for me. There’s a nice slate of games Friday-Sunday and TSI has you covered with sides and totals projections for each game.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Friday Night
LA Sparks vs Indiana Fever
This should be an exciting game from a fan standpoint, as three lottery picks will all face off as Caitlin Clark leads Indiana into LA to take on Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson and the Sparks. Indiana is 2.5-point road favorite here as they seek their first win, with an Over/Under of 164.
TSI is in a similar neighborhood, projecting the Fever as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 163. Honestly, understanding how my formula works and seeing what oddsmakers made this line, I can tell you that both are still weighing preseason expectations pretty heavily, but when looking at the in-season data only, I would make LA a 3 -point home favorite here.
Bet: Sparks +2.5 (Play to +2)
Saturday
Minnesota Lynx vs NY Liberty
New York just got handed its first loss on Thursday night, while Minnesota lost a heartbreaker to Connecticut in overtime. Both of these teams will likely want to get the bad taste out of their mouths and the Liberty are 6.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 165.5. TSI projects New York -9 with a total of 161.5
Lean: Under 165.5
Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun
Another road favorite by a touchdown in this game as Connecticut is a 6.5-point favorite in Chicago with an Over/Under of 157.5 vs the Sky. TSI is pretty in line with the market here, projecting Connecticut -6 with a total of 158.5. Since there’s no discernible edge using just TSI, I looked at the in-season formula and it would project Connecticut -3.5, so there’s potentially value on the Sky but not enough for me to bet it.
Lean: Sky +6.5
Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics
Seattle is an 8.5-point home favorite here with an Over/Under of 161.5 in another game where TSI is pretty much in lockstep with the market, projecting Seattle -8 with a total of 159. I do actually like this under, as both teams have been pretty rough offensively to start the year, as the in-season data would make the total 150.
Bet: Under 159
Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever
It’s not often you see a back-to-back in the WNBA, but when you’re as famous and nationally-craved on TV as Caitlin Clark and the Fever, weird things can happen. Unfortunately, they’re playing the defending champs who are fresh off their first loss of the season, that’s not a great recipe. Vegas is 12.5-point favorites at home with an Over/Under of 172.5.
TSI projects Aces -12 with a total of 176. I would maybe look at an Aces team total over here, but if I had to, I’d take the game Over 172.5, as the in-season formula confirms TSI and one-ups it to 179.
Bet: Over 172.5
Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings
Dallas has underperformed relative to my TSI ratings in virtually every game so far, which has been frustrating. They take on the hot Phoenix Mercury, who just beat the Aces this week. Phoenix is a mere 1-point favorite at home with an Over/Under of 167.
TSI is still projecting Wings -2 with a total of 171 since it’s still so early in the season and preseason numbers are still weighed heavily. In-season numbers aren’t nearly as fond of Dallas, making Phoenix a 4-point favorite with a total of 165.5. This is a complete stay away with such conflicting numbers.
Advice: Stay away
Sunday
Atlanta Dream vs Minnesota Lynx
There are no lines posted yet. TSI projects Atlanta -1.5 with a total of 161.
LA Sparks vs Dallas Wings
Another weird back-to-back here with the Wings. There are no lines yet but TSI says Dallas -4.5 (again, probably too high)with a total of 166.5. In-season data says LA -2.5 with a total of 158. I would be staying away from this game.
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