NFL Week 16 best bets and betting odds
Every game has some level of meaning in Week 16. A lot of games have playoff implications and those will draw the majority of the interest, but there are some games with a lot of potential impact on the NFL Draft order as well. Athletes don’t quit. Coaches and decision-makers can influence things, so that has to be in the back of your mind as you look at this week’s set of games.
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The schedule is a little different with three games on Monday and two games on Saturday, so there are some rest factors at play as well.
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Here are my favorite Week 16 NFL picks:
(Odds as of December 21, 11:25 a.m. PT)
Cleveland Browns (-3, 40) at Houston Texans
As a long-suffering Browns fan, I’m not used to seeing them in a road favorite role or seeing a lot of things fall their way, but they’re in a pretty good spot this week against the Texans. I actually liked the Bears last week and Chicago looked like the right side throughout that game before Cleveland’s fourth-quarter comeback.
But, the reasons why I liked the Bears are not present this week for the Texans. They don’t have a mobile QB like Justin Fields who can work around an aggressive defense. The Texans have a statue in Case Keenum in the pocket and they don’t have receivers capable of creating much separation with Tank Dell out and Nico Collins back from injury. Houston cannot run the football up the middle and find success. They have a bottom-10 rush offense by EPA and success rate.
Jonathan Greenard is a guy that the patchwork Browns offensive line will have to deal with, but Will Anderson looks to be out again. So does Blake Cashman, Houston’s leading tackler. The Browns use the middle of the field a ton and Cashman is a decent coverage linebacker who might have neutralized David Njoku to some point.
It’s a bad matchup all around for Houston here.
Pick: Browns -3
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1, 50)
Both of these teams have something to prove this week. The Dolphins have not beaten a team in a playoff spot yet and have lost to three of them. The Cowboys have beaten two, but have also been pummeled by the 49ers and Bills. This is definitely the spotlight game on Sunday and could have a lot of offensive fireworks.
I like the Cowboys here, though. They’ve at least beaten some decent teams and should have beaten Philadelphia in both games. Miami has beaten the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Jets, and Commanders, so two teams that have already fired their coach, another that is playing out the string with a legendary coach, and a couple that could very well have new coaches next season in Washington and New York.
The two main losses for Dallas came against physical teams in Buffalo and San Francisco. The Dolphins are not a very physical team. The Cowboys’ lack of red-zone success is my main holdup here, but the Dolphins have one of the league’s worst red-zone defenses and it has shown in their games against better offenses.
Pick: Cowboys +1
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