Entering the 18th and final Sunday of the NFL regular season, we’ve seen underdogs and unders turn a consistent year-long profit. Dogs are 139-113 ATS (55%), led by "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more 93-63 ATS (60%) and divisional dogs 48-34 ATS (59%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 144-112 (56%). If the total falls at least a half point, the under is 80-55 (59%). Outdoor divisional unders are 36-19 (66%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s regular season finale slate…
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1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)
The Browns (7-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention but have gone 4-2 over their last six games. Cleveland just beat Washington 24-10, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (8-8) are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and have won five of their last six games. Pittsburgh just beat Baltimore 16-13, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with the Steelers listed as a 3-point home favorite. Currently 58% of bets are laying the points with Pittsburgh. However, despite this public support we’ve seen the Steelers fall from -3 to -2.5. This line even touched -2 at times throughout the week. This signals liability on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Road divisional dogs are 32-21 ATS (60%) this season. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. The total has ticked up from 38.5 to 40.5. Outdoor divisional unders are 36-19 (66%). Pittsburgh is 10-6 to the under, including 5-2 to the under at home.
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 41.5)
Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Panthers (6-10) are 4-3 over their last seven games but just fell to the Bucs 30-24, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Saints (7-9) have won three straight and just beat the Eagles 20-10, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. This public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. But we’ve seen the Saints tumble from -4.5 to -3.5, with some shops even trending down to -3. This signals respected money grabbing the points with the Panthers. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week are 62-45 ATS (58%) this season. When two teams who both missed the playoffs the previous season face off, the dog is 51-31 ATS (62%). Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 92-62 ATS (60%). The total has risen from 38.5 to 41.5. Currently 52% of bets but 63% of money is on the over.
4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3, 39.5)
The Chargers (10-6) have already clinched a Wild Card berth. Los Angeles has won four straight and just beat the Rams 31-10, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Broncos (4-12) have long been eliminated from playoff contention and just fell to the Chiefs 27-24 but covered as 12.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. We’ve seen this line completely flip to Broncos -3. Why such a drastic line move? Because the Chargers don’t have much to play for and are rumored to rest many of their starters. The Broncos are only receiving 24% of bets but 50% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The total has fallen from 40.5 to 39.5. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%). Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 57% to the under historically. Denver is 11-5 to the under, including 5-2 to the under at home. Los Angeles is 9-5-2 to the under, including 5-2-1 to the under on the road.
