Underdogs and unders have been the smart bet through the first eleven weeks of the NFL regular season. Dogs are 93-70 ATS (57%), with "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more a sparkling 63-34 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders are 95-72 (57%), led by windy unders 10 MPH or more an impressive 33-18 (65%). If the windy under takes place in a conference game it improves to 27-10 (73%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 12 slate…
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1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Ravens (7-3) are riding a four-game winning streak and just brushed aside the Panthers 13-3 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jaguars (3-7) are just 1-6 over their last seven games and just fell to the Chiefs 27-17, failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the Ravens. However, despite receiving 83% of bets the Ravens have fallen from -4 to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Baltimore to begin with? Because pro money has grabbed the Jags plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Jacksonville has a rest vs tired advantage, as the Jags are coming off a bye week and the Ravens played last week. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 43. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds.
1 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos (-1, 36) at Carolina Panthers
The Broncos (3-7) have lost six of their last seven games and just fell to the Raiders 22-16, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (3-8) have lost three of their last four and just lost to the Ravens 13-3 but covered as 12.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Currently 71% of bets are laying the short spread with the Broncos. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Denver fall from -2.5 to -1. This indicates respected money taking the points with the home dog Panthers. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Panthers, are 69-49 ATS (58%) this season. Carolina will start QB Sam Darnold. Interestingly, this line has moved toward Carolina after Darnold was announced the starter, signaling some wiseguy confidence in the former 3rd overall pick. The total has fallen from 37 to 36. The forecast predicts 15 MPH winds. Denver is 9-1 to the under this season.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Bengals (6-4) have won four of their last five games and just took down the Steelers 37-30, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (7-3) have won seven of their last eight games and just beat the Packers 27-17, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 2-point road favorite. Early in the week, we saw the Bengals tick up to -3. But ever since that time it’s been a steady flow of wiseguy action grabbing the Titans plus the points, dropping the line down to 1.5. Some shops are even down to 1. Essentially all late money is breaking toward Tennessee. The Titans have a notable rest advantage, having played on Thursday while Cincinnati played on Sunday. Mike Vrabel is 22-12 ATS (65%) in his career as a dog, including 4-1 ATS this season. The total has fallen from 43 to 42.5 despite 82% of bets taking the over. This signals some sharp under liability. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds. Tennessee is 7-3 to the under this season.
