4:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 52.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs (13-3) have already won the AFC West but are still battling for the 1-seed in the playoffs. Kansas City has won four straight games and just edged the Broncos 27-24 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Raiders (6-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention. Las Vegas has lost three of their last four games and just fell to the 49ers 37-34 but covered as 10-point home dogs. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as roughly a 10-point road favorite. Early in the week, we saw this line dip to Chiefs -7.5, before some heavy buyback steamed Kansas City back up to -9.5. Several books are juicing up the Raiders +9.5 to -115, signaling some late Vegas money and a possible drop down to 9. Las Vegas is receiving 56% of bets and 58% of money.
***Top NFL Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
The Raiders match several profitable betting systems. Big dogs +7 or more are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 47-33 ATS (59%). Conference home dogs are 35-26 ATS (57%). Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 50.5 to 52.5. The over is receiving 62% of bets but 76% of money, a slight public but heavy wiseguy bet discrepancy. The Chiefs are 6-2 to the over on the road. The Raiders are 5-1-1 to the over at home. These teams played back in October and the Chiefs won 30-29.
8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 40)
The stakes for this game couldn’t be higher as the winner punches their ticket to the playoffs and the loser goes home. The Titans (7-9) have lost six straight games and just fell to the Cowboys 27-13, failing to cover as 13.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Jaguars (8-8) have won four straight games and just crushed the Titans 31-3, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Jacksonville listed as a 7-point home favorite. Despite 55% of bets laying the points with the Jags, we’ve seen Jacksonville tumble from -7 to -6.5. Several shops are juicing up the Titans +6.5 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to +6. This indicates pro money grabbing the points with Tennessee.
Primetime dogs are 30-22 ATS (58%) this season. Road divisional dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%). Mike Vrabel is 22-15 ATS (59%) as a dog in his career. The total has ticked up sightly from 39.5 to 40. The under is only receiving 36% of bets but 49% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Primetime unders are 34-18 (65%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%). The Titans are 11-5 to the under, including 5-3 to the under on the road. The Jags are 8-8 to the total but 5-2 to the under at home. These teams played in early December and the Jags won 36-22.
