Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
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8:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-1, 49.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills (12-3) have won six straight games and already punched their ticket to the playoffs by winning the AFC East. Buffalo just brushed aside the Bears 35-13, easily covering as 8-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bengals (11-4) have won seven straight games and have already clinched a playoff berth as well. Cincinnati just beat the Patriots 22-18, covering as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Bills listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. The oddsmakers also seem to have set a perfect line as the number has barely budged all week long. At times we’ve seen the line briefly rise to Bills -1.5 and then come back down to -1. The line has never fallen down toward Cincinnati. With an even bet split and lack of line movement, game day action might be critical in terms of finding out where the pros are leaning. If we see this line rise to -1.5 or higher on game day, that will indicate respected money backing Buffalo. If it falls down toward a pick’em, that will signify late wiseguy money backing Cincinnati. Game day movement is always important because that’s when the books raise their limits and the biggest bets come in.
The Bengals match several profitable betting systems. Primetime dogs are 30-22 ATS (58%) this season. Conference home dogs are 35-26 ATS (57%). Joe Burrow is 2-0 ATS as a dog this season and 15-7 ATS (68%) as a dog in his career.
The total opened at 49.5 and hasn’t budged either. This lack of upward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over and expecting a high scoring game. However, despite 81% of bets taking the over, the line hasn’t moved. This signals a sharp under line freeze. Primetime unders are 34-18 (65%) this season. When the total is 49 or more, the under is 22-11 (67%). Despite their high powered offenses, both teams have been "under" teams this season. Buffalo is 10-5 to the under, including 7-1 to the under on the road. Cincinnati is 9-5-1 to the under, including 4-2 to the under at home.
