Late Line Movement NFL Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:
We kept the hot start rolling on Thursday night with an easy cash of the Jets/Patriots Under 38.5 and now sit at +4.46 units on NFL bets in this young season. As I do every week, I want to examine the line moves this week and see where the market may have overcorrected on some matchups to see if we can find some value to get some late-week bets in. Here’s what I’m looking at for Week 3:
New Orleans Saints (-2.5; 49.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)
This game opened earlier this week at DraftKings with the Saints as 2.5-point underdogs, and we’ve seen a 5-point swing that, to my knowledge, is not injury-related. That is a MASSIVE move for an NFL line, especially through zero. Betting reporters on X were reporting yesterday that a vast majority of bets were on Saints -2.5, to which I responded, “Betting the Saints -2.5 when +2.5 was available earlier this week is betting malpractice,” and I stand by that. Despite my T Shoe Index projecting New Orleans -5, why in the world would you bet New Orleans now after a 5-point swing lost you 12.6% of theoretical edge? I’m not just here to give picks; I want to educate you and make you a smarter bettor. Pay attention to the line movement before you bet either way.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Advise to stay away at current numbers
Dallas Cowboys (+1; 48) vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
The Ravens began this season as my #1 power rated team, and that is looking more foolish by the week so far. The Cowboys opened as 1 point favorites in this game and we’ve seen a 2 point swing through zero to favor the Ravens on the road. TSI projects Baltimore -2, but keep in mind those lofty preseason expectations are still factored pretty heavily into that projection. When just looking at opponent-adjusted data from 2024 so far, all other formulas project Dallas a favorite, despite them getting thoroughly beat down by the Saints last week. I don’t bet against TSI, but this is a strong lean to Dallas, and at +2.5 or better, I will be backing the ‘Boys.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Lean Cowboys +1, Bet at +2.5 or better
NFL Week 3 Best Bets I still like from earlier in the week:
Arizona Cardinals +3
Indianapolis Colts -1.5
Steelers/Chargers Under 36
For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.