Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, underdogs and unders have proven to be a smart bet. Dogs went 8-7 ATS in Week 17, improving their season long record to 138-112-5 ATS (55%). Meanwhile, unders went 7-6-1 to improve their record to 142-112-1 (56%).
With this in mind, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for NFL Week 18…
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Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 52.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs (13-3) have already won their division and are battling for the top seed and a bye. Kansas City has won four straight and just beat the Broncos 27-24 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (6-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention and have dropped three of their last four games. Las Vegas just fell to the 49ers 37-34 in overtime but covered as 10-point home dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 10-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, we’ve seen the line tumble from Chiefs -10 to -7.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the home dog Raiders. Big dogs +7 or more are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 47-33 ATS (59%). We could also be in for a shootout as the total has risen from 50.5 to 52.5. Vegas is 5-1 to the over in their last six home games. Kansas City is 5-1 to the over in their last six road games.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)
The Browns (7-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention. Still, Cleveland has won four of their last six games and just beat the Commanders 24-10, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (8-8) are still alive for a playoff spot. Pittsburgh is 5-1 over their last six games and just beat the Ravens 16-13, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with the Steelers listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen Pittsburgh fall from -3 to -2.5, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the Browns. Road divisional dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 47-33 ATS (59%). Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41 to 40.5. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%) this season. The Steelers are 10-6 to the under, including 5-2 to the under at home.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 38)
The Texans (2-13-1) own the world record in the NFL and are gearing up for the top pick in the Draft. Houston just got crushed by the Jaguars 31-3 last week, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Colts (4-11-1) have the 5th-worst record in the NFL and just rolled by the Giants 38-10, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps see a tight game and have grabbed the points with Houston, dropping the Texans from +3 to +2.5. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 14-6 ATS (70%) this season, including 62% ATS over the past five seasons. When two teams face off who both missed the playoffs the previous season, the dogs is 51-31 ATS (62%). Houston is also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 38.5 to 38. When the total falls in a divisional game, the under is 27-14 (66%). Both teams are 10-6 to the under.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 42.5)
The Patriots (8-8) are in the hunt for a playoff spot and just took down the Dolphins 23-21 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (12-3) have already won their divisional and are fighting for the top playoff spot and a bye. Buffalo just had their last game postponed in the first quarter against the Bengals due to the tragic injury suffered by Damar Hamlin. This line opened with the Bills listed as high as a 10-point home favorite. We’ve seen Buffalo fall from -10 to -7.5, signaling sharp money grabbing the points with the desperate Patriots. New England is receiving 64% of bets but 85% of money. Big dogs +7 or more are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Road divisional dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%). The under is receiving 49% of bets but 84% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 41.5)
The Panthers (6-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention and just fell to the Bucs 30-24, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Saints (7-9) have also been eliminated and just beat the Eagles 20-10, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 4-point home favorite. We’ve seen the Saints fall from -4 to -3.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Panthers. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 92-62 ATS (60%) this season. Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 62-45 ATS (58%). Road divisional dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%). We’ve also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 38.5 to 41.5. The over is receiving 61% of bets but 72% of money. Carolina is 4-1 to the over in their last five games.
