NFL Week 9 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

We split our four NFL article plays last week, as Tampa Bay couldn’t sneak in the back door against Atlanta and Chicago suddenly forgot how to play offense against a Commanders team that gives up 21 points per game. Meanwhile, Indianapolis and the Broncos handled the Panthers after falling down 7-0 (which we bet live -4.5, if you follow me on X). TSI was 9-5-2 on all sides last week, so I hope the formula adjustments continue to pay dividends as we evaluate the early board for NFL Week 9 and see where TSI indicates we should scoop up some value.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) vs Los Angeles Rams, O/U 48.5

LA got Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back last week and beat the Vikings in a Thursday night showdown that I think a lot of people lost money on, as Minnesota was a popular pick last week. I think given the standalone nature of the Thursday game and the fact so many people got burned by the Rams last week has them rushing to back them this week; however, TSI really likes Seattle here, projected the Seahawks as 3-point favorites. At sharp offshore books, this line opened Seattle -1 and we saw immediate action to Seattle -1.5, before now swinging back the other way through zero, but I can’t get that initial move + TSI projection combo out of my head. Last week in these scenarios, TSI was 3-0 in games where the early sharp books moved toward my number, regardless of where it closed. These teams are pretty similarly rated on both sides of the ball, so I like the underachieving home team in this one.

Bet: Seahawks +1 (Play to -1)

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) vs Detroit Lions, O/U 47.5

Detroit is the newly-annointed #1 in TSI after another dismantling of an opponent; this time it was the poor Titans, who were the victims of the offensive onslaught brought on by the Lions. That said, I think the market is a bit out over its skis on them now, understandably so, but they opened as 5-point favorites and that has been bet down to 3.5 already, and TSI projects them as just 2-point favorites, so we’re still getting a key number and a hook here with the home dog. I think Green Bay’s top 5 TSI offense can score enough to keep this one within a field goal. Both of these teams have been excellent ATS so far, combining to go 12-3, with a cover margin of 13.7 points per game; further evidence this should be a playoff-level game and Lambeau Field is not a friendly atmosphere for opposing teams. The Packers have been home dogs just once this year, and covered that game by eight points. 

Bet: Packers +3.5 (Play to +3)

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Hub exclusively on VSiN.