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In the meantime, let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 18…
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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 39)
The Browns (7-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention but just beat the Commanders 24-10, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (8-8) are alive for a Wild Card spot and have won five of their last six games. Pittsburgh just beat Baltimore 16-13, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with the Steelers listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. But the Browns +3 is juiced to -115, signaling liability on Cleveland with a potential drop down to 2.5. Road divisional dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%) this season. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game, as the total has fallen from 41 to 39. The under is receiving 70% of bets but 92% of money. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%) this season. Divisional unders that fall are 27-14 (66%). The Steelers are 10-6 to the under, including 5-2 to the under at home.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 42.5)
The Patriots (8-8) are still alive for a playoff spot and just beat the Dolphins 23-21 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Bills (12-3) have already punched their ticket to the postseason. This game opened with Buffalo listed as high as a 10-point home favorite. We’ve seen the Bills tumble down to -7.5. Several shops are juicing up the Patriots +7.5 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 7. New England is receiving 64% of bets but 85% of money. Big dogs +7 or more are 33-21 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 47-33 ATS (59%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week, like the Patriots, are 62-45 ATS (58%). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. The under is receiving 49% of bets but 82% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Both of these teams are "under" teams, with the Pats 9-7 to the under and the Bills 10-5 to the under. Outdoor divisional unders are 34-19 (64%) this season.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 38)
Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans (2-13-1) are 1-10 over their last 11 games and just fell to the Jags 31-3, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Colts (4-11-1) are just 1-9 over their last ten games and just fell to the Giants 38-10, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen the Colts fall from -3 to -2.5, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the road dog Texans. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 14-6 ATS (70%) this season, including 62% ATS over the last 5 seasons. When the two teams facing off both missed the playoffs the previous season, the dog is 51-31 ATS (62%) this season. Houston also has value as a road divisional dog (60%). The Texans are in a prime teaser spot as well (+2.5 to +8.5), going through multiple key numbers. The total has fallen from 38.5 to 38, indicating some smart money on a lower scoring game. The under is receiving 62% of bets but 89% of money, a sharp money discrepancy. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 80-54 (60%). Both teams are 10-6 to the under.
