Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 43.5)
The Bucs (3-3) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Falcons 16-13, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (4-3) have lost two of their last three and just lost to the Patriots 29-25, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as low as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is largely split down the middle, with 55% of bets laying the points with the Bills at home. However, despite this relatively even ticket count we’ve seen Buffalo get steamed up from -7.5 to -9.5. This signals smart money laying the points with the Bills at home. After all, in a vacuum a line shouldn’t really move at all if the tickets are somewhat even.
Buffalo is only receiving 55% of bets but 75% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split and further evidence of pro money in the Bills’ favor. Thursday Night home favorites are 3-3 ATS this season but 85-70 ATS (55%) since 2005. Buffalo also has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
Sharps are also expecting a higher scoring game tonight as the total has been steamed up from 42 to 43.5. Currently 61% of bets and 70% of money is taking the over, evidence of slight public support but also heavy sharp action. Weather shouldn’t be an issue tonight in Buffalo, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with mild 8 MPH winds.
Buffalo is averaging 28.3 PPG, third most in the NFL. The Bills are also ravaged by injuries on defense and will be without starters Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver. Meanwhile defensive tackle Vita Vea is questionable for Tampa Bay.
