Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
***Top NFL Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6, 44.5)
The Bears (0-4) are one of only two winless teams in the NFL (along with the Panthers) and just fell to the Broncos 31-28, pushing as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Commanders (2-2) started the season 2-0 but have since lost two straight, falling to the Eagles 34-31 last week but covering as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Washington listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, it appeared as though big money laid the points with the Commanders, steaming Washington up from -5.5 to -7. However, once the line reached the key number of 7 we saw sharp buyback on the Bears, dropping the line back down to 6 where it rests now. Currently 72% of bets and 64% of money is laying the points with Washington.
In addition to receiving late line movement in their favor, the Bears also offer contrarian value as they’re only receiving 28% of bets in a primetime game. Short road dogs +6 or less are 12-9 ATS (57%) this season and 186-122 ATS (60%) since 2019. Scott Novak, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (60% ATS). Justin Fields, however, is just 8-20 ATS (29%) in his career, including 4-10 ATS (29%) as a road dog. The Commanders will likely be a popular teaser play, taking them down from -6 to a pick’em, in which case they just have to win the game straight up.
Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 44.5. Currently 53% of bets and 56% of money is taking the over. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split down the middle. So the fact this line rose a full point indicates sharp money banking on a higher scoring game.
The Bears are 14-7 (67%) to the over since the start of 2022, including 4-0 to the over this season. Both teams are averaging over 330 yards per game on offense (334 for Chicago and 347 for Washington) while giving up over 365 yards on defense (388 for Chicago and 367 for Washington). The Bears are allowing 34.3 points per game, the second most in the NFL behind only the Broncos (37.5). The Commanders are allowing 30 points per game, 4th most in the NFL.
Weather should be perfect for football tonight, as the forecast calls for high 60s, partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at FedEx Field.
