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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 6 slate…
1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
The Vikings (1-4) just fell to the Chiefs 27-20, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Bears (1-4) just posted their first win of the season, beating the Commanders 40-20 and winning outright as 6-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Vikings listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points, with 55% of bets backing Minnesota. However, despite receiving a majority of bets we’ve seen the Vikings fall from -4.5 to -3. This signals smart money grabbing the Bears plus the points at home. Another big reason for this line move is the fact that Vikings star WR Justin Jefferson will miss this game with a hamstring injury.
Divisional dogs are 14-11 ATS (56%) this season and 176-135 ATS (57%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 24-20 ATS (55%) this season and 300-215 ATS (58%) since 2019. The Bears enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Vikings played on Sunday. Brad Allen, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (55% ATS).
Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 43.5. The forecast calls for low 50s with 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10+ MPH the under is 111-62 (64%) since 2021.
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 42.5) at Houston Texans
The Saints (3-2) just crushed the Patriots 34-0, easily winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (2-3) just fell to the Falcons 21-19 but covered as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Currently 67% of bets and 69% of money is backing the Saints. This heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support has steamed New Orleans up from a pick’em to -1.5.
Road favorites are 17-13 ATS (57%) this season. Road favorites are 22-10 (69%) straight up. New Orleans is -125 on the moneyline. The Saints have value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. New Orleans has the edge on defense, allowing 289 yards per game compared to 346 for Houston.
Sharps have also leaned over, as the total has risen from 40.5 to 42.5. The over is receiving 47% of bets but 58% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Alan Eck, the lead ref, has historically favored overs (69%).
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 44)
The Colts (3-2) just took down the Titans 23-16, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Jaguars (3-2) just upset the Bills 25-20, winning outright as 5-point neutral site dogs in London.
This game opened with Jacksonville listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Jags. However, despite receiving 61% of bets we’ve seen Jacksonville fall from -5.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. The Colts are only receiving 39% of bets but 56% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split.
Divisional dogs are 14-11 ATS (56%) this season and 176-135 ATS (57%) since 2020. Short road dogs +6 or less are 13-10 ATS (57%) this season and 187-123 ATS (605) since 2019. The Jags are in a situational fade spot after playing two straight games in London and now having to travel back to America without a bye. Trevor Lawrence is just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a favorite.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44. Unders that fall at least a half point are 45-34 (57%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 11-8 (58%) this season and 89-59 (60%) since 2021.
