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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 15 action.
1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 37.5) at New England Patriots
The Chiefs (8-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Bills 20-17, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. Conversely, the Patriots (3-10) just snapped a five-game losing streak with a 21-18 win over the Steelers, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 10.5-point road favorite. The public sees this as an easy "get right" game for Kansas City and currently 80% of bets are laying the points with the Chiefs. However, despite this lopsided betting we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -10.5 to -8.5. Some shops are even down to -8. This line briefly bottomed out at Chiefs -7.5 throughout the week as well. Why is the line dropping if the public is overwhelmingly on Kansas City? Because pros have scooped up the points with New England, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. The Patriots are the top contrarian play of the week, receiving only 20% of bets. New England enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, as the Patriots played on Thursday while the Chiefs played on Sunday. New England also has correlative betting value as a dog getting more than a touchdown in a low total game (37.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number.
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 42.5)
The Bucs (6-7) have won two straight games and just took down the Falcons 29-25, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Packers (6-7) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Giants 24-22 and losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Packers. However, despite Green Bay receiving 57% of bets the line has remained frozen at Packers -3.5. It never rose up to -4. And the Bucs +3.5 is being juiced up to -115, signaling respected money on Tampa Bay plus the points and a possible fall down to the key number of +3. Essentially, all liability is on the Bucs as a road dog. Tampa Bay is receiving 43% bets but 51% money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Baker Mayfield is 17-13 ATS (57%) as a road dog in his career, including 6-1 ATS as a road dog this year with the Bucs. Tampa Bay also enjoys a rest advantage as the Bucs played on Sunday while the Packers are on a short week having just played on the road Monday night.
4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2, 49.5)
The Cowboys (10-3) have won five straight games and just crushed the Eagles 33-13, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (7-6) have won two of their last three games and just upset the Chiefs 20-17, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bills listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? The public is all over the trendy dog Cowboys plus the points. However, despite 57% of bets taking Dallas we’ve seen this line move further toward Buffalo -1.5 to -2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bills, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead laying the points with contrarian home favorite Buffalo. The Bills are only receiving 43% of bets but 67% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Buffalo also has value as a non-conference favorite and a short favorite in a high total game (49.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. The Bills are just 2-4 on the road but 5-2 at home. Buffalo is -130 on the moneyline.
