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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-7.5, 46.5)
The Raiders (3-4) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Bears 30-12 and losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Lions (5-2) just had their four-game winning streak snapped, losing to the Ravens 38-6 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Lions listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Detroit and currently 80% of bets are laying the points with the Lions. Early in the week, we saw Detroit move from -7.5 to -8.5. This was caused by heavy support in the betting market but also the speculation that Jimmy Garoppolo would possibly miss the game with an injury. However, once it was announced that Garoppolo was expected to play, we saw the line fall back toward the Raiders +8.5 to +7.5. Essentially, we are back where we started at the opening line.
The Raiders have notable contrarian value, receiving only 20% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 10-12 ATS (45%) this season but 102-76 ATS (57%) since 2020. When two teams who missed the postseason the previous year face off, the dog getting +3.5 or more is 6-5 ATS (55%) this season and 157-122 ATS (56%) since 2018. Garoppolo is 18-6 ATS (75%) as a dog in his career and 20-11 ATS (65%) on the road.
The Lions are in the "teaser zone" as you can take Detroit down from -7.5 to -1.5 and pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Dan Campbell is 28-13 ATS (68%) as coach of the Lions, including 7-3 ATS (70%) as a favorite. Teams off a blowout loss of 30-points or more (like Detroit tonight), are 138-110 ATS (56%) since 2005.
Pros have also leaned over, steaming the total up from 44 to 46.5. Some books are even inching toward 47. The over is receiving 44% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. However, not that the total has risen so much, it creates an opportunity for an inflated buy-low under. Unders are 71-49 (59%) this season. Non-conference unders are 24-16 (60%). Primetime unders are 15-7 (68%). The Lions are 4-3 to the over. The Raiders are 5-2 to the under.
