The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 64-50-2 (56.1%). Here are today’s results:

– BROOKLYN (+1 at WSH)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, team strength system #2, two Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend favor BKN + extreme stat system #3 fades WSH 

– SAC-ORL OVER 214.5
DK Betting Splits system #14, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OVER 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 72-18 SU and 51-36-3 ATS (58.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS) 

* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of Mavs-Bulls head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3 vs. DAL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, BROOKLYN, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CHICAGO, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MEMPHIS 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and a ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and a ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – ORLANDO ML, CHICAGO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-ORL, BKN-WSH, MIA-PHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Over the total was 63-55 (53.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/29: Over the total in WASHINGTON-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-WSH (o/u at 217) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 22-32 SU and 22-31-1 ATS skid in the last 54 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/29: FADE LA LAKERS at Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+2.5 at MEM) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-53 SU and 120-80-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (*if they become favorites in this line range vs LAL, -2.5 currently) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 111-76 SU and 112-72-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+1 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 75-30 SU and 64-40-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (*if they become favorites at WSH, +1 currently) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 256-46 SU but just 141-155-6 ATS (47.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs IND), BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 107-88 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 218-169 (56.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 273-212 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-OKC (o/u at 237.5), BOS-SAS (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 151-91 SU but 110-128-4 ATS (46.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is a 92-113 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-1 vs BKN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 287-301 SU and 262-318-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS (+3 at CHI), MIAMI (-7 at PHI), INDIANA (+10 at OKC) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 328-294 SU but 283-320-17 ATS (46.9%) the next game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS), INDIANA (+10 at OKC) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 162-176 SU and 153-176-9 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS), INDIANA (+10 at OKC) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 192-75 SU and 142-122-3 ATS (53.8%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 39-13 SU and 35-15-2 ATS (70%) in their last 52 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (*if they become a favorite at WSH, +1 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 121-22 SU but 61-79-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. IND) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 72-18 SU and 51-36-3 ATS (58.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (203-223 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (275-272 ATS, 50.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+7 vs. MIA), BROOKLYN (+1 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 249-299-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs IND), BOSTON (-12.5 at SAS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-83-1 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 27-41 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. IND)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.6)
2. ORLANDO +1 (+1.2)
3. BROOKLYN +1 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -12.5 (+1.1)
2. CHICAGO -3 (+1.0)
3. MIAMI -7 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +1 (+4.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO +12.5 (+2.9)
3. DALLAS +3 (+2.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS -2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-SAS OVER 228 (+5.2)
2. SAC-ORL OVER 214.5 (+3.6)
3. BKN-WSH OVER 217 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-OKC UNDER 237.5 (-4.8)
2. DAL-CHI UNDER 238.5 (-2.6)
3. LAL-MEM UNDER 237.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.4)
2. ORLANDO +1 (+0.3)
3. DALLAS +3 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+1.7)
2. MIAMI -7 (+0.7)
3. BOSTON -12.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-WSH OVER 217 (+5.8)
2. BOS-SAS OVER 228 (+5.0)
3. DAL-CHI OVER 238.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-OKC UNDER 237.5 (-5.6)
2. SAC-ORL UNDER 214.5 (-1.5)
3. LAL-MEM UNDER 237.5 (-0.3) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) ORLANDO
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the SAC-ORL head-to-head cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(545) BROOKLYN at (546) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 of the BKN-WSH head-to-head series at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(547) MIAMI at (548) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(551) DALLAS at (552) CHICAGO
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the DAL-CHI head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(553) BOSTON at (554) SAN ANTONIO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head matchups between BOS and SAS
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (555) LA LAKERS at (556) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between LAL and MIA, but did go Under last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the totalEN STATE at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the GSW-NOP head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(541) UTAH at (542) DENVER
* DENVER has covered five straight ATS in head-to-head games versus UTA
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

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