Over the last few weeks, the NCAA Tournament has had the attention of most basketball bettors. I continued chugging along with NBA best bets and player props throughout the first few rounds of March Madness, but trust me when I say I saw all the X replies on my stories. There was a lot of, “The NBA is still happening? Who cares?” Luckily, I’ve developed some thick skin working in this industry — or maybe it was the four years I spent in Madison, Wisconsin in college. So, I wasn’t offended by people not caring about what I was writing. However, the NBA was still happening! And some of the things we saw in March are worth recapping as we get closer and closer to the NBA Playoffs. That said, keep reading for some betting nuggets and things you might be able to use over the next couple of weeks.
Who’s hot?
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the Thunder and Celtics were scorching hot in March. Oklahoma was a league-best 15-1 with an Efficiency Differential of +16.8, according to Cleaning The Glass. The Thunder were the best team in basketball in terms of points scored per 100 possessions (125.0), as well as the second-best team in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.2). The Celtics weren’t far behind either. They went 14-1 in March and had an Efficiency Differential of +13.4, along with the league’s second-best points scored per 100 possessions (124.8) and a top-10 defense in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.4).
Considering the Cavaliers, who have been right there with Oklahoma City and Boston all year long, are +700 to win the NBA title, it certainly seems like the oddsmakers are factoring in this recent stretch quite a bit. I still think there’s some value to be had with Cleveland, which has the second-best record in basketball, along with the third-best adjusted net rating (+8.6) at Dunks & Threes. But if you haven’t been paying much attention to the NBA over the last few weeks, the two championship favorites have been humming.
It’s also worth noting that the Timberwolves, Clippers and Rockets have all been hooping.
Minnesota is a team I’m heavily invested in to win the Western Conference. That’s not because I view them as a better team than the Thunder. I most definitely do not. But Minnesota is 11-3 with an Efficiency Differential of +11.5 since March 1st. Since then, the Timberwolves have been a top-five team in both points scored per 100 possessions (121.9) and points allowed per 100 possessions (110.4). They have honestly been tremendous on both ends of the floor since a slow start to the season, and I’m not sure you can definitively say there’s a Western Conference team outside of Oklahoma City that has been as good as Minnesota since the start of 2025. The Timberwolves have also played the Thunder well all year, so they have some sneaky upside if they can avoid a first-round date with OKC.
The Clippers have also been tremendous since March 1st. They’re 11-5 in their last 16 games and have a +9.4 Efficiency Differential. They’re also fourth in points scored per 100 possessions (122.1) since March 1st, which means a lot when considering they’re also second in the league in Dunks & Threes’ adjusted defensive rating (109.2). With James Harden still being one of the best advantage creators in basketball, Kawhi Leonard looking like San Antonio Kawhi and Ivica Zubac being a player that should really warrant legitimate Defensive Player of the Year consideration, you shouldn’t sleep on this Clippers team. Between those three, Ty Lue’s world-class X’s-and-O’s mind and a deep, versatile rotation, the sky is the limit for LA.
The Rockets are also just doing what they have been doing all year. They went 12-5 in March, finishing eighth in points scored per 100 possessions (119.7) and seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.9). Houston is second in the Western Conference standings and really should stay there, potentially giving the team home-court advantage up until a potential meeting with OKC in the Western Conference Finals. But you can still find some great futures prices on the Rockets, as people just don’t seem to believe in them — despite the fact that they’re healthy and have won eight of their last 10 games.
What should we be watching in the standings?
A lot of people are talking about the Mavericks, Kings and Suns battling for the ninth and 10th spots in the Western Conference standings, but does it really matter? If any of those teams get the eighth seed, the reward will be a thorough beatdown at the hands of the Thunder.
What really matters is the race for the fifth and sixth seeds. Right now, only one game separates the fifth-seeded Grizzlies from the eighth-seeded Clippers. Well, getting to five or six in the standings means avoiding an opening-round date with Oklahoma City, meaning a puncher’s chance of getting to the Western Conference Finals.
Is anything still playable in the futures market?
Defensive Player of the Year is still wide open. Draymond Green is an odds-on favorite to win the award, but that’s something that happened pretty recently. Green has undoubtedly been great this season, but it’s worth noting that he’s only 14th in the league in Defensive EPM (+2.1). He’s also just eighth in the NBA in combined steals and blocks (stocks) per game, as he’s averaging 2.50 on the season. Well, disregarding an ineligible Victor Wembanyama, Dyson Daniels is first in the league in stocks per game (3.78). He also has a higher DEPM (+2.3) than Green. So, it’s a little interesting to see him out there at 25-1. However, there’s a general consensus that Daniels’ candidacy in the Most Improved Player market could doom him here.
Oddly enough, one of the players with the best overall cases isn’t part of the conversation, and that’s Zubac. He’s tied for eighth in the league in DEPM (+2.3), he’s second in Defensive Win Shares (4.3) and he anchors the league’s second-best defense in terms of adjusted defensive rating. But that’s neither here nor there.
So, is there anything that’s actionable in the DPOY market? The final dart worth throwing is Luguentz Dort at 25-1. Working against the Thunder wing is the fact that his traditional numbers and advanced stats are completely pedestrian. But Dort is widely viewed as the best defender on an Oklahoma City team that is historically good defensively. Dort has also performed insanely well when covering the opposing team’s best player all season long. We’re also starting to see the Thunder campaign for Dort to win the award.
The other day, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said, “I think Lu is at the forefront of impacting defense in this NBA every single night, and that’s why I think he should get it.”
In a weak year for the market, perhaps a late push like this can help him. With no clear front runner when it comes to rim protecting bigs, it could make sense for the best defender on the league’s best defensive team to win. Nobody would complain about that outcome.
It also seems like Most Improved Player is up in the air, as Cade Cunningham isn’t as big of a favorite now as he has been throughout the year. However, I’m having a hard time finding value elsewhere. All year long, I have felt that Tyler Herro is being shortchanged in that market, but his odds are so outrageous that it seems he’s not under serious consideration.
The last thing I’ll say is that Mark Daigneault might be worth a flier to win back-to-back Coach of the Year awards. Kenny Atkinson has done a killer job with Cleveland this year, and he has looked like a lock to win this award for months. But the Thunder are a seven-game winning streak away from winning 70 games, and they’re going to be favored in all of those contests. And even if Oklahoma City rests starters in road games against Utah and New Orleans to end the year, the team has enough talent on its bench to win both. So, this could warrant a pizza-money play, even if Atkinson will probably end up winning. The Thunder have dealt with injuries all season long, so a 70-win season would say a lot about Daigneault’s ability to patrol the sidelines.
