VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, August 16
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 16, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, BOSTON, TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
In games this season through Monday 8/14 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 214-121 record, but for -63.82 units. This is an R.O.I. of -19.1%! In my opinion, bullpens prove to be the difference in games that are priced more competitively.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE SEATTLE, FADE ATLANTA
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 49-54 for -71.94 units! This angle was 3-5 last week and lost -7.12 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -69.8%!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-269 for +64.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12%!
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-183 for -35.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.7%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Match: 2-game –FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 184-121 for +26.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 8.9%.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since August 7, when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – CHICAGO CUBS
3+ game – NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE, FADE SAN DIEGO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE OAKLAND, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MILWAUKEE
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE TEXAS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-656 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +43.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: TORONTO
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +40.02 units, for an R.O.I. of 5.5%.
System Match: TORONTO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 156-73 (+25.28 units, ROI: 11.0%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 133-82 in their last 215 tries (+27.97 units, ROI: 13.0%).
System Match: LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+36), TAMPA BAY (+21), BALTIMORE (+48)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE (+23), HOUSTON (+25)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-COLORADO OVER 12 (+0.7), PHILADELPHIA-TORONTO OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE-LA DODGERS UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), CLEVELAND-CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), OAKLAND-ST LOUIS UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), CHICAGO-CHICAGO UNDER 11 (-0.9)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(901) PITTSBURGH (54-66) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (54-66)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending UNDER in DAY games (21-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh solid bet vs NL West/East (26-24, +10.33 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (48-36-4, +8.40 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER as ML favorite (33-42-3 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (23-29, -15.83 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER at HOME (19-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) ARIZONA (60-60) at (904) COLORADO (46-74)
Trend: Arizona good record against Colorado this year (7-2)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER as ML favorite (23-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (21-25, -6.31 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (8-26, -13.15 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (28-52, -13.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(905) MILWAUKEE (65-55) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (72-46)
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (16-19, -7.95 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (17-31-1 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (55-27, +13.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (19-18, -10.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(907) DETROIT (53-66) at (908) MINNESOTA (63-58)
Trend: Detroit good in division (21-14, +10.17 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (24-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not great bet as ML favorite (50-38, -9.10 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
(909) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-62) at (910) TEXAS (72-48)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in divisional games (23-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA trending OVER as ML underdog (30-18-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (23-11, +8.25 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (35-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (53-28, +9.50 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(911) SEATTLE (64-55) at (912) KANSAS CITY (39-82)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in multiple ways (30-20 O/U in AL East/Central games, 42-35 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle not great bet as ML favorite (48-40, -10.70 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (21-54, -23.07 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City not good against AL East/West (11-30, -14.12 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(913) TAMPA BAY (72-50) at (914) SAN FRANCISCO (64-56)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (25-27, -9.68 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
(915) HOUSTON (69-52) at (916) MIAMI (63-58)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (36-26, +7.01 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Miami good against AL teams (26-17, +11.58 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (21-33, -5.40 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (36-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) CLEVELAND (58-62) at (918) CINCINNATI (62-59)
Trend: Cleveland not great as ML underdog (20-30, -6.70 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (17-11, +7.72 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER as ML favorite (13-27-1 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(919) OAKLAND (33-87) at (920) ST LOUIS (54-66)
Trend: Oakland bad as ML underdog (33-83, -27.35 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland more OVER against LH starters (20-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-46, -25.17 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis worst in MLB as ML favorite (34-43, -29.67 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(921) BOSTON (63-56) at (922) WASHINGTON (53-67)
Trend: Boston good against LH starters and trends UNDER (21-12 for +8.85 units and 13-19 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: BOSTON, UNDER
Trend: Boston not as good against NL teams (19-22, -6.30 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (27-42, -1.86 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (25-35, -2.81 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(923) PHILADELPHIA (65-55) at (924) TORONTO (67-54)
Trend: Philadelphia better against AL teams (25-17, +4.99 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (35-36, -11.94 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER against AL (16-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (24-12, +9.28 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (14-20 O/U against NL, 19-35 O/U at HOME, 22-43 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
(925) NEW YORK-AL (60-60) at (926) ATLANTA (77-42)
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (33-44, -17.72 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER at NIGHT (31-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta offense dominating in August (7.73 RPG)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (35-23 O/U at HOME, 44-32 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(927) CHICAGO-AL (48-72) at (928) CHICAGO-NL (61-58)
Trend: White Sox are 8-1 in the last nine games vs Cubs at Wrigley Field
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: White Sox trending UNDER as ML underdog (26-45-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (34-23 O/U at HOME, 24-14 O/U against AL teams, 43-36 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(929) BALTIMORE (74-46) at (930) SAN DIEGO (57-63)
Trend: Baltimore best in MLB as ML underdog (31-23, +15.60 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: San Diego pretty good against AL teams (20-14 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER against AL (10-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (35-46, -30.09 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 8/14-Wed 8/16
Trend: FAVORITES are 10-1 (91%, +8.52 units) in the last 11 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
The R.O.I. on this trend is 77.5%.
System Matches: NY METS
Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Tue 8/15-Thu 8/17
Trend: FAVORITES are 14-1 (93.3%, +11.4 units) in the last 15 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
The R.O.I. on this trend is 76%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Friday 8/16)