VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, September 1
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, September 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, DETROIT, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE, TORONTO, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 12-10 (+3.65 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 289-293 for +64.93 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.2%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 199-204 for -36.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.1%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-100 for -26.80 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -15.2%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE ST LOUIS, FADE CLEVELAND
3+ games – FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 199-133 for +22.26 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.7%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/21 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 207-159 for +7.33 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 7-5 week and have now gone 102-68 for +22.28 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – MILWAUKEE
3+ games – SAN DIEGO, BOSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE TEXAS, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE HOUSTON, FADE NY METS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 794-666 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +41.25 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.8%.
System Matches: KANSAS CITY, WASHINGTON
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-328 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.42 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.7%.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 66-50 outright (+9.84 units, ROI: 8.5%).
System Match: BOSTON
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 92-85 (+21.79 units, ROI: 12.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 161-77 (+23.49 units, ROI: 9.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: HOUSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 141-86 in their last 227 tries (+28.68 units, ROI: 12.6%).
System Matches: HOUSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 47-49 (-21.95 units, ROI: -22.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA, FADE TAMPA BAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Rating projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+21), LA DODGERS (+15), CINCINNATI (+20 GAME 1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO (+33), BOSTON (+36), DETROIT (+15), HOUSTON (+23), SEATTLE (+44), TORONTO (+26), BALTIMORE (+37)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.5), PHILADELPHIA-MILWAUKEE OVER 7.5 (+0.8), ATLANTA-LA DODGERS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), TAMPA BAY-CLEVELAND OVER 7.5 (+1.2), MINNESOTA-TEXAS OVER 8 (+0.5), DETROIT-CHICAGO WS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), LA ANGELS-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+0.8), SEATTLE-NY METS OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TORONTO-COLORADO OVER 12 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (71-62) at (902) CINCINNATI (69-66) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (23-16 O/U in division, 33-22 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: OVER
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES trending OVER (8-1 OVER on season)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (25-29, -3.53 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati slight OVER against LH starters (22-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) CHICAGO-NL (71-62) at (904) CINCINNATI (69-66) (DH Game #2)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES trending OVER (8-1 OVER on season)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago better at NIGHT (41-34, +4.07 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (44-37, +14.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is (CIN 5 – CHI 4)
(905) MIAMI (67-67) at (906) WASHINGTON (62-73)
Trend: Miami good against Washington this season (8-2 record)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami struggling recently (2.1 Runs PG in L11, 3-8 record)
System Match: FADE MIAMI, LEAN UNDER
Trend: Washington profitable as ML underdog (54-66, +21.81 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-37, -0.52 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(907) PHILADELPHIA (74-59) at (908) MILWAUKEE (74-59)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good bet at NIGHT (42-38, -8.79 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (57-38, +15.77 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against NL East/West (23-28, -6.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
(909) PITTSBURGH (61-73) at (910) ST LOUIS (58-76)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD Pittsburgh has 7-3 record vs. St. Louis this season
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (46-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis not good at NIGHT (32-55, -34.44 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER in NIGHT games (34-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(911) SAN FRANCISCO (70-64) at (912) SAN DIEGO (62-73)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (42-34, +3.62 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (29-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (36-45 O/U at NIGHT, 26-37 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(913) ATLANTA (88-45) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-50)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (62-25, +19.92 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (33-19 O/U vs NL Central/West, 48-39 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (46-22, +9.42 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (63-30, +17.50 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(915) TAMPA BAY (82-52) at (916) CLEVELAND (64-70)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER in AWAY games (28-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not great as ML underdog (25-35, -4.06 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER at HOME (21-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) MINNESOTA (69-65) at (918) TEXAS (75-58)
Trend: Minnesota not great on the ROAD (29-36, -11.37 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Texas good against AL Central/East (32-19, +7.98 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas slight OVER at NIGHT (42-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(919) BOSTON (69-65) at (920) KANSAS CITY (41-94)
Trend: Boston pretty good against AL Central/West (30-25 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston more OVER against RH starters (53-41 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City trending OVER a couple of ways (35-29 O/U at HOME, 28-21 O/U vs AL East/West)
System Match: OVER
(921) DETROIT (60-74) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (53-81)
Trend: Detroit more UNDER in DAY games (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago trends UNDER as ML underdog (31-47-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) NEW YORK-AL (65-69) at (924) HOUSTON (77-58)
Trend: NYY bad at NIGHT (38-47, -16.43 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Houston good against LH starters (26-15, +3.64 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at HOME (37-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAY BELOW
(925) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-70) at (926) OAKLAND (39-95)
Trend: LAA bad against LH starters (13-21, -14.98 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division games (23-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA leads season series (5-2 record)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Oakland better bet at NIGHT (30-50, -1.42 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against LH starters (23-15 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) SEATTLE (76-57) at (928) NEW YORK-NL (61-73)
Trend: Seattle good with RHP Logan Gilbert starting (9-1 in L10 games)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in NL games (16-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not great against AL teams (16-24, -14.25 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (21-41 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(929) TORONTO (73-61) at (930) COLORADO (49-84)
Trend: Toronto good in interleague play (28-15, +8.53 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at NIGHT (26-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER against LH starters (14-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(931) BALTIMORE (83-50) at (932) ARIZONA (69-65)
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (34-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona pretty good at NIGHT (45-40, +6.68 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER against LH starters (17-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #14: NY Yankees at Houston, Friday 9/1-Sun 9/3
Trend: NY YANKEES are 2-9 (18.2%, -7.95 units) in their last 11 games vs. Houston
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -72.3%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/4)