Florida vs. Houston:

The NCAA Tournament National Championship stage is set: Florida vs. Houston. They will battle Monday night in San Antonio for the right to call themselves national champions. Both teams battled adversity and overcame sizable deficits in their semifinal games before prevailing and setting up this clash of contrasting styles in the championship.

Florida (-1) vs. Houston, O/U 142 (8:50 p.m. ET)

On one hand, you’ve got the high-scoring Florida Gators, whose offense has averaged 85 points per game this season (84 in the tournament) in the toughest conference in the country. Conversely, you’ve got the hard-nosed, defense-first mantra of the Houston Cougars, who only allowed a mere 58 points per game during the season and so far in the tournament. 

Make no mistake, though, Houston can score the ball too; they’re still top 20 in offensive efficiency while being #1 in defensive efficiency. The Gators can also play both ends of the floor, checking in as a top 25 team in defensive efficiency and #3 in offensive efficiency – Houston’s semifinal opponent, Duke, is #1.

So how does TSI project this game to play out? Despite Florida being tabbed as a 1.5-point favorite by the betting market, with an Over/Under of 141.5, TSI is calling for the minor upset with Houston projected as a 1-point favorite over the Gators with a total of 142. 

Subjectively, I think Houston’s style is better equipped for a colossal game on a short turnaround. Now, is there the possibility that Walter Clayton Jr. pulls another rabbit out of his hat? Absolutely. But top-to-bottom, I (and the metrics) like Houston’s defense, coaching and experience to close out another nail biter Monday night.

TSI Score Projection: 72-71 Houston

Bet: Houston ML +100

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How To Watch Florida vs. Houston

How: CBS

When: Monday April 7, 8:50 p.m. ET

Where: Alamodome in San Antonio, TX